CYCLE METRICS
Halving cycle position, on-chain profitability, and supply dynamics.
NUPL, Stock-to-Flow, loss supply deviation, and composite cycle score. Multiple lenses on the same underlying question: where are we in the Bitcoin cycle.
Cycle Score
BTC NUPL
Stock-to-Flow
Loss Deviation
BTC SOPR
BTC Aroon
USDT Aroon
Noodles Cycle
CYCLE STATE
Bear, ascending.
Phase progress at 59 of 100 toward the next confirmed BUY signal. Cycle position derived from the Noodles Cycle Index anchor framework.
Cycle Timeline: Where Are We?S2F MODEL
Apr 2024Nov 2024May 2025Dec 2025Jun 2026Jan 2027Aug 2027Feb 2028
YOU ARE HERE
May 2026 · Day 756 · DISTRIBUTION / EXTENDED BULL
Halving contextFrom 4th halving · 20 Apr 2024
Days since halving
756
4th halving · 20 Apr 2024
Days since cycle top
222
$126,000 · Oct 6, 2025 · C4 SELL anchor
Cycle progress
54%
Day 756 of ~1400 avg cycle length
Cycle metricsOn-chain & technical reads, this cycle
Noodles Cycle Index
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59
BEAR · ASCENDING
BTC NUPL
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Stock-to-Flow
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Day 756
DISTRIBUTION
Loss Deviation
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NO DATA
BTC Aroon
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USDT Aroon
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Cycle bottom convergenceEstimated cycle bottom across our metrics, ordered by timeline
| Framework | Est. bottom price | Est. bottom date | Days from now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-to-Flow | ~$34,000 | Aug 2026 | Day 844 · ~88 days |
| Noodles Cycle Index | no price model | Oct 17, 2026 | ~154 days · BUY anchor |
| Loss Deviation | $50,681 | no date model | if deviation reaches 2.0x |