SCENARIO ENGINE
Probability-weighted market paths.
Base, bull, and bear scenarios with triggers and invalidation levels. Updated daily based on regime shifts.
Active Scenarios
Track Record
Methodology
Crisis Alerts
No active scenarios
Scenarios will appear here when created and activated.
SCENARIOS TRACKED
0
CORRECT
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PARTIAL
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ACCURACY
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The track record begins at launch. No back-tested or hypothetical results are included. Every scenario outcome is published regardless of accuracy. Results accumulate as active scenarios reach their resolution.
The Scenario Engine identifies the most probable macro and geopolitical market disruptions, quantifies their likelihood, and estimates their cross-asset impact before they are priced in.
Each scenario is a structured thesis built around a specific market catalyst: an energy supply shock, a monetary policy shift, a sovereign debt event, a geopolitical escalation. The system continuously monitors a set of discrete conditions tied to each thesis. As conditions are confirmed by live market data and real-world developments, the scenario’s probability adjusts accordingly.
PROBABILITY MODEL
Scenario probability is a weighted composite of three independently observable factors:
45%
Condition Verification
Each scenario defines specific, measurable conditions. Market-based conditions are verified automatically against live data. Geopolitical conditions are confirmed as events unfold through monitored intelligence sources.
30%
Pattern Correlation
Current market structure is compared against historical precedent events with similar characteristics. The score reflects alignment in sequencing, magnitude, and market context.
25%
Regime Alignment
The prevailing macroeconomic regime is assessed through a composite of 31 economic indicators. The score reflects consistency with the environment in which the scenario would typically materialize.
DOMINANT BIAS
The dominant market bias is derived by weighting each active scenario’s probability against its directional impact on risk assets (BTC, ETH, SPX). Scenarios where the majority of risk asset impacts are negative contribute to the bearish weight. Scenarios where the majority are positive contribute to the bullish weight. The resulting ratio determines the overall bias: RISK-OFF when bearish scenarios dominate, RISK-ON when bullish scenarios dominate, and MIXED when neither side holds a decisive advantage.
IMPACT ESTIMATION
Estimated asset impact ranges are derived from median historical moves observed during comparable precedent events. Each estimate carries a confidence rating based on the number of available precedents and consistency of observed outcomes. These are statistical references, not forecasts.
SCENARIO LIFECYCLE
Scenarios progress through four phases: initial conditions, trigger events, market impact, and recovery. Each is created with an explicit time horizon. When resolved, it is classified as CORRECT, PARTIAL, or INCORRECT with a detailed comparison of predicted versus actual outcomes. All resolutions are published.
LIMITATIONS AND DISCLOSURES
The Scenario Engine is a decision support tool, not financial advice. Probability assessments are model-derived and subject to estimation error. Historical precedents do not guarantee comparable future outcomes. The number of active scenarios is deliberately limited to maintain analytical depth.
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No Crisis Scan Data
First scan will execute within 24 hours, or trigger one manually.